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胜率、盈亏比、期望值:三者的真实关系_爱期货

胜率、盈亏比、期望值:三者的真实关系

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  • 来源:爱期货

一、高胜率也会亏

胜率 80% 但盈亏比 0.2(小赚大亏),长期仍亏。追涨杀跌常是这个结构。

二、低胜率也能赚

胜率 40% 但盈亏比 3:1,靠少数大赚覆盖多数小亏,趋势跟踪者多如此。

三、期望值统一两者

无论胜率高低,期望值为正才是可复制的盈利模式。优化系统就是抬升期望值。